วันอังคารที่ 26 พฤษภาคม พ.ศ. 2552

Phillip Stock Predictions Recommends Buy PHATRA

Phatra Securities - PHATRA - BUY

12-month target price : Bt13.10
Recommendation : BUY
Closing Price (29 Jan 09) : Bt11.20

2008 results dogged by market volatility
- Broker PHATRA posted a 4Q08 net loss of Bt164.61m hit by a Bt304m provision for impairment losses on its investment portfolio. For the full year 2008, the broker reported a net profit drop of 57.25% YoY.

sirius stock predictions
- We revise our 2009 estimate downward to better reflect the current situation. The new estimate puts the broker's 2009 net profit growth forecast at 50.31% YoY.
- We continue to rate PHATRA a 'Trading BUY' with a 2009 price target of Bt13.10/share.

4Q08 net loss of Bt164.61m hit by Bt304m of investment impairment losses
Broker PHATRA reported a 2008 net profit of Bt207.31m, down 57.25% YoY. The profit decline reflected a Bt304m provision for impairment losses on its investment portfolio, comprising a Bt249m charge for impairment losses on direct investments and another Bt55m charge for TSFC-related investments in the fourth quarter. The impairment loss charges put the broker into a net loss of Bt164.61m in 4Q08. Brokerage fees tumbled 44.65% YoY and 23.90% QoQ to Bt142.62m.

Cut in 2009 estimate to better reflect current situation
The average daily market turnover during the start of the year remained light at Bt10.6b, below last year's low of Bt10.8b in Nov. We therefore cut our 2009 average daily market turnover estimate to Bt15b, down 6.58% YoY. Brokerage fees are forecast at Bt791.74m for 2009, down 8.44% YoY. We believe that if the market's decline is not as steep as in 2008, there will be no more provision for impairment losses on its investment portfolio. Effective expense control should however enable the broker to deliver 2009 net profit of Bt311.61m, up 50.31% YoY.

Trading BUY rating with 2009 price target of Bt13.10/share
Following downward earnings revision, we cut our 2009 price target for the broker to Bt13.10/share from a previous estimate of Bt19.60/share. The new price target is based on a P/E multiple of 9x. The brokerage sector remains under pressure from weak trading volume, leaving the market vulnerable to volatility, but the broker's fundamentals however remain strong and its cost/income ratio is comparatively low compared to its peers. We also expect the broker to pay a final dividend of Bt0.70/share from its 2H08 earnings. We continue to rate PHATRA a 'Trading BUY.'

By Phillip Securities (Thailand) Plc. on Jan 30, 2009

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